Be Careful What You Ask For

It’s the season for political polling, which is a convenient occasion for illustrating the many potential pitfalls of conducting opinion research.  Last week there was a particularly good example of biases in opinions caused by the way a question is asked.

There is currently a bill (House Bill 1366) in the North Carolina State Legislature that aims to reduce bullying in the public schools, and (at least at one point) specifically calls for harsher penalties for bullying that is based on group membership, including sexual orientation.

So what do North Carolinians think about the bill?  Well, apparently only 24% of them support it.

No, wait a minute—74% of them support it.

What gives?

There’s an easy explanation — you get what you ask for. Here’s how the more liberal Public Policy Polling phrased the question in their survey (which showed 74% support):

There is currently a proposal in the General Assembly that specifies the need to protect children from bullying based on their sexual orientation. Do you think this provision should be passed into law?

And here’s how the more conservative Civitas Institute phrased the question in the poll that received 24% support:

Do you think public schools in North Carolina should implement an anti-bullying policy that requires students be taught that homosexuality, bisexuality, cross-dressing and other behaviors are normal and acceptable?

Regardless of your politics, I think anyone would agree that there is a pretty big difference in the emotional tone, the choice of absolutes (“specifies” vs. “requires”), and the choice of descriptors (“sexual orientation” vs.  “homosexuality, bisexuality, cross-dressing and other behaviors”; “children” vs. “students”) in these two questions.  This all adds up to big differences in what those questions are asking, so it is unsurprising that they got such divergent results*.

As recognized by the local media, both polling groups typically operate on opposite sides of the political spectrum, but I have to agree with the reporter that the Civitas question is the more biased** of the two.  Casting political questions in terms of absolutes (i.e., “requires”) often lowers levels of support because most Americans do not like the idea of being told what to do by the government.  Throwing in the ambiguous (and scary)  “other behaviors” invites respondents’ imaginations to run wild.  Finally, framing the bill in terms of “teaching” rather than “preventing bullying” is arguably a misstatement of what the bill is supposed to do.  You can make the argument that children are “taught” what is normal and important by viewing how adults punish and reward their behavior, but “taught” in the context of public education explicitly conjures the image of direct classroom instruction.   For all of these reasons, the Civitas question looks like it was written to get the exact result they got.  It may not be a public opinion question, but a marketing question, designed to get headlines and shift attention.

In other words, to ensure you get good quality data, you need to be careful what you ask.  Which, if either, of these questions is likely to provide an accurate estimate of how people will vote on the bill?  And to ensure that you as a reader are not mislead when biased questions are reported in the media, you need to know what was asked!

*If I had to be evenhanded to both sides I would argue that the Public Policy Polling question was asking about support for the intent of the bill, while the Civitas Institute was focused on support for a potential effect of the bill.

**The Public Policy Polling Question isn’t perfect either.  “To protect children” is a fairly loaded phrase (Simpsons fans will recall the often exclaimed, “won’t somebody think of the children?!”)

Photo of the North Carolina State Capitol in Raleigh courtesy of Jim Bowen and licensed via a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 license.


Corona team member helps Ad2 Denver take 2nd place in public service competition!

Congratulations to our own David Kennedy, and the rest of the Ad2 Denver team, who took 2nd place in the national 2008 American Advertising Federation‘s Public Service Competition!  Their project culminated in a very cool and witty media campaign for the new Bradford Washburn American Mountaineering Museum located in Golden, CO.  We’re very proud of Dave’s success, and honored that he helps the Corona team give back to the community.  (We also love the BWAMM ads!)  Way to go Dave!


Obama’s Super Marketing Machine

I should first start off with a general disclaimer.  We’re a neutral market research firm with no affiliation with any political party.  Oh, and another disclaimer, we do market research for a living, so we are biased in that respect.  With all that out of the way…

I read an article today on Obama’s Super Marketing Machine.  We’ve been hearing for a while about his excellent grassroots efforts and his fund raising successes, but this is one of the first articles on the underlying efforts that make it all possible.  In short, he’s taking advantage of mining and segmenting databases; conducting surveys of attitudes and behaviors; and building profiles of supporters, contributors, neighborhoods, and likely voters to help with everything from fund raising to get out the vote efforts (for a more satirical look at the issue, see the Onion’s recent article on market research which requires the NSFW warning typical to most Onion articles: it has rampant foul language).

I’ll let you read the article for yourself, but some of the most interesting insights to us are in the comments, as many readers conveyed their “big brother” privacy fears.  The research techniques of the Obama campaign are nothing new (many readers said as much), as these tools have been used in private industry for years.  What’s new is bringing this level of research sophistication to a Democrat’s political campaign (these techniques aren’t new to Republicans – the 2000 and 2004 Bush wins are generally attributed to Karl Rove’s use of similar methods, see this book for example).

But rather than focus on politics or the dangers of rampant data collection (which are potentially many and should not be minimized) I’d like to look at how such data mining is actually a good thing – and not just for the companies.

Earlier I went on Amazon to look for a book, and the home page was covered with product deals directly related to my hobbies (photography and climbing).  Not only were the suggested products in the same category, the camera accessories were the right ones to fit my camera, the guide books were of areas that I was interested in. The other day at the grocery store when I checked out I received coupons for products that I actually buy.

Maybe this is creepy to some people, but why wouldn’t you want to receive relevant advertising messages instead of random, irrelevant messages?  If I received a coupon for adult diapers at the grocery store I would be quite disturbed. If I’m in the market for a new TV, and someone wants to tell me that they have a sale, great!  Saves me time.

On a bigger scale, how much more efficient does this make the economy?  Companies can spend fewer dollars to reach more people who actually may buy their product (in this case, a President).

I’ll stop there, but you get my point – data mining and geodemographic segmentation isn’t all bad.  Yes, there should be restraints, effective oversight, and the information should be used ethically, but overall it can actually help improve your life.


Who uses this stuff anyway?

Do you ever wonder who uses market research? You may think, “marketers, of course,” but there can be many more audiences to market research than just marketers or even management. The findings could impact everyone in the organization from the CEO to the front line employees.

I came across this somewhat old article today about tailoring your reports to your reader. Makes complete sense of course, and it’s something we strive to do as well (we’ve even given presentations with hardly a chart or graph if we think there are better ways at presenting the data). But I’ve often wondered if our reports end up on the desks of people that we weren’t aware of when creating the report, or perhaps more likely, the results are not clearly communicated between one user and another (since they all look at it through their own eyes).

Writing different variants of reports – or at least different sections clearly tailored to different audiences – is obviously one solution. But you still have to know WHO you are audience is and WHAT THEY NEED. I liked the article’s suggestion to go visit the actual client (not just the primary contact or purchaser); see who they are, how they interpret data, and what they need out of the research. So, if you hire us in the future, don’t be surprised if I come knocking at your door for a tour and meet-and-greet.


Don’t Stop….Graphing?

I’ll admit it — I’m a graph nerd. I tend to obsess over the minutia of tables, charts, and graphs, in search of the best ways to present different types of data. I’ve fully accepted the idea — popularized by Edward Tufte and others– that many of the advances in graphing technology lead to pretty, but dysfunctional, graphs. And certain popular graph types are simply not suited for the types of data people often try to present with them (one of these days you’ll be subjected to a rant on pie charts or producing three-dimensional graphs from two-dimensional data).

But even a fundamentalist needs to have fun. So when I feel the need to combine my love for (bad) music and graphing, I turn to GraphJam, a site dedicated to “Pop Culture for People in Cubicles.” The charts, flow charts, and other data graphics people create and share at GraphJam indicate the endless human capacity for creating comedy from anything at hand — even Excel’s Charting Tools!


Corona Makes Fastest Growing Private Companies List … Again!

 

For the sixth time in seven years, Corona has made the “25 Fastest Growing Private Companies” list, compiled for the Denver area by the Denver Business Journal.  This year, we are ranked 5th (in terms of percentage growth in gross revenues) in our class, with a growth of 135% between 2005 and 2007.

Thanks to everyone – especially our clients – for making Corona Research so successful!


Forget Gen Y, What About the “Google Generation”?

Since our work on Digital Natives (pdf) for the Idaho Commission for Libraries on digital natives (mentioned in this post), we’ve been noticing others’ work on defining the behavior of GenY and the subsequent generation (whom I refuse to call Gen Z) who have all grown up with ubiquitous computers, cell phones, and the Internet.

University College London, working for the British Library, recently released yet another interesting report examining individuals born after 1993 (whom the report dubs the “Google Generation”).

The report, based on literature reviews and analysis of library database search data, focuses on how the Google Generation searches for and uses information (and how that behavior is different from other cohorts), with a focus on searches for “scholarly” articles.

A great feature of this report is that the researchers have indicated their confidence (from low to very high) in the validity of each of the hypotheses and myths they set out to examine.

To me, one of the most arresting results* lay in this graph** (click on the graph to open a window with a slightly more readable version):

 

Personal relationships, across all cohorts, are a common way to find scholarly articles, but the younger cohorts are more likely to search google scholar, examine an electronic table of contents, or visit a journal publisher’s website.

Members of the Google Generation are also much less likely to visit the library in person, which provides still more support to the idea that academic libraries of the future will feature far fewer physical stacks and far more virtual ones.

*Ok, this result isn’t perfect. Since the data is cross-sectional, we can’t be completely sure if the differences in behaviors between cohorts are due to the fact that they are in different generations or if there is some developmental change (i.e., some systematic difference in behavior, preferences, or training between older and younger individuals that younger individuals will eventually “grow out” of) that is causing the differences here.
**To nitpick some more, the graph isn’t perfect either. The y-axis isn’t labeled (nor is the x-axis, which we believe to be age), and the text accompanying the graph says only “the graph shows the relative value that members of the academic community place on a range of methods for finding articles,” so there’s no way to tell what scale was actually offered for the values (e.g., 1 to 6, or 1 to 10, etc.), or whether numerical “values” were accompanied by verbal labels that aren’t included on the graph. Also, the smoothed curves are unnecessary, and give the illusion of a continuous variable when, in reality, there are no values between the labeled cohorts. Using a simple straight line that connected visible dots would have been clearer.

Now that’s market research!

A little fun for Friday…

Check out “the Tinkerer,” New Belgium Brewing Company’s blog for their “market research” for their new canned Fat Tire.

From the website:

Yes folks, we believe in market research, and if that means taking our cans rafting to prove their versatility and packabilty, then so be it.

An offer to New Belgium: I’m headed out backpacking next week, so if you guys would like additional testing, please let me know.

Cheers!


Three laws of Great Graphs?

What graphs should you use in your presentations?

Marketing uber-guru Seth Godin recently posted an interesting set of guidelines (and a follow-up coda) on his website.  As is customary for our culture, Seth’s rules were three:

1. One Story
2. No Bar Charts
3. Motion

His rules quickly were a lightning rod for controversy, so let’s separate the wheat from the chaff:

1. One Story Seth says (and has said before) that a graph should avoid nuance and be easily understandable in two-seconds and should make only one main point.  But Seth is giving his advice in the context of making a memorable, high impact presentation, where (in Seth’s words) you need to make a “point in two seconds for people who are too lazy to read the forty words underneath.”

Other types of contexts require different types of graphs.  Reports can handle more complex graphs (but executive summaries should probably be simpler), exploratory analyses can go even more complex, and data-visualization as art need not even be readable!

But let’s take a second look at that quote.  By calling your audience “too lazy to read the forty words underneath” Seth is assuming that the audience doesn’t care.  This echoes what he says in his follow up post

In a presentation to non-scientists (or to bored scientists), the purpose of a chart or graph is to make one point, vividly. Tell a story and move on. If you can’t be both vivid and truthful, it doesn’t belong in your presentation.

Again, this only matters when your audience is not invested in your topic.  For topics and presentations where there is much more intrinsic interest among your audience, you can get more nuanced.  But there is no reason a nuanced chart cant also have a simple message, as the Junkcharts blog points out.  Or, as Jon Peltier puts it, by removing nuance, you are insulting your audience, telling them that “They can’t handle the truth!”

2.  No Bar Charts. Seth has made the point before that a bar chart can obscure the truth, and muddle your story.  Instead, he suggests using a pie chart.  A confession: I hate pie charts (as do others who make graphs for a living), but they do have a time and a place for simple graphic displays, especially since audiences are familiar with them and expecting them.  But don’t scorn the useful bar chart!  Yes, they can be misused, but so can any other type of graph, and (as pointed out by Stephen Few) pie charts are actually perceptually inferior to bar charts even for presenting simple data.  The one point I do agree with is that bar charts should not usually be used to display time series results (often line graphs are better for that) (Seth defended his no bar charts decision in his follow up post–to stop this from turning into Moby Dick, we’ll address that with our own follow up post).  The issue here is really using a chart, and choosing the data, that best illustrates your story for your audience.

3.  Motion.  Seth really dropped the ball here.  For someone that understands the distraction caused by PowerPoint’s dubious dissolves and annoying sound clips (pdf), his suggestion of creating two slides with graphs set up to show changes is just as cheap and distracting a trick.  Stephen Few has a much better suggestion (although even this can be improved), to show the change by making parallel  bar graphs.  Here the story is “Trolls were a problem, but Gremlins are now.”

If trolls and gremlins were the only categories on the graph, then Seth’s suggestion would work great.  And if the biggest problems are all you care about, then that is fine.  But if you have this data and your story is different, you need a different graph and a different presentation style than Seth suggests.

The BOTTOM LINE

Design your charts (and all your materials) with your story and your audience in mind.

And as for this non-controversy, we’re really all on the same team here–we all want clear, interesting presentations.  Seth wants to accomplish that by limiting what people do with graphs; those who he (dismissively) calls data purists want to educate people to do more with their graphs so they make the right choices.  Seth’s plan works for the novice.  But when the training wheels are ready to come off, I think it’s better if presenters know how to make the best choices for the needs of their story.